Supply-Demand Tight Balance Intensifies, Sufficient Upward Momentum for Petroleum Coke in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

SMM October 31:

This week, the petroleum coke market saw continued active trading, with smooth shipments from refineries and strong purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors, leading to a broad-based price increase. For major refineries, CNOOC's refineries witnessed active participation from downstream bidders this week, with petroleum coke prices rising significantly, up 150-600 yuan/mt, and current prices concentrated at 4,200-4,700 yuan/mt. Notably, Zhoushan Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance, and affected by supply reduction, its price rose 600 yuan/mt this week. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China experienced tightening low-sulphur petroleum coke supply, with good shipment performance; prices remained largely stable during the week, and current petroleum coke prices are concentrated at 3,846-4,410 yuan/mt. Additionally, Dagang Petrochemical in north China raised its petroleum coke price by 180 yuan/mt to 4,330 yuan/mt during the week. According to SMM, petroleum coke prices in north-east China are still expected to rise; starting November 1, prices at Fushun Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical are projected to increase by another 100-200 yuan/mt. For Sinopec, the focus during the week was on shipments and volume, with petroleum coke prices rising slightly within a range of less than 100 yuan/mt. As for local refineries, daytime trading activity was good, and petroleum coke prices continued to climb; as of today, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was about 2,918 yuan/mt, up 5% WoW from last Friday.

For imported coke, driven by continuous domestic price increases and strong downstream procurement enthusiasm, imported coke prices also rose. Port shipment pace accelerated, inventory continued to decline, and traders, after smooth shipments, showed strong bullish sentiment and held back cargoes; port spot cargoes adopted limited-quantity sales, with the market dominated by small-lot transactions.

Supply side, the tightening trend in the petroleum coke market supply intensified this week, as the number of maintenance enterprises increased among both major and local refineries: among major refineries, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Luoyang Petrochemical remained under maintenance, and Yunnan Petrochemical was added to the shutdown maintenance list during the week; among local refineries, two units—Lanjiao Petrochemical and Tianhong Petrochemical—were newly shut down for maintenance. Coupled with production declines at some enterprises, domestic petroleum coke supply further contracted, providing support for price increases.

Demand side, prebaked anode enterprises operated well, and recent new capacity brought some incremental demand; calcined petroleum coke enterprises, affected by rising raw material prices, saw their product prices increase accordingly, with moderate shipment performance; the downstream order book for the negative electrode material market was sufficient. Multiple downstream sectors contributed to demand growth, effectively absorbing the market impact from supply contraction, and with the onset of winter stockpiling in north-west China approaching, petroleum coke demand increased further.

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. As the month-end and early-month period approaches, restocking and stockpiling demand from some enterprises has become more prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm among enterprises, SMM expects that upward momentum for petroleum coke prices will persist in the short term.